Week 16 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Tyler Higbee from EV Insight

Tyler HigbeeReceiving Yards

Right now, Tyler Higbee’s receiving yards prop is set at 22.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the OVER up to 22.5 (-115) after it opened @ 22.5 (-115).

Pros

The leading projections forecast this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 135.4 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
The 6th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Rams this year (a whopping 60.6 per game on average).
Calm weather conditions (like the 1-mph wind being predicted in this game) typically cause increased passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher air volume, and lower ground volume.
Tyler Higbee’s 80.4% Route Participation% this year signifies a noteworthy growth in his pass game usage over last year’s 69.7% figure.
In this week’s game, Tyler Higbee is expected by the model to position himself in the 79th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 4.6 targets.

Cons

This week’s spread indicates a rushing game script for the Rams, who are favored by 4.5 points.
Tyler Higbee’s 29.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this season signifies a remarkable drop-off in his pass-catching talent over last season’s 38.0 figure.
With a lackluster 65.7% Adjusted Catch Rate (13th percentile) this year, Tyler Higbee ranks among the most hard-handed receivers in the NFL when it comes to tight ends.
This year, the stout Saints defense has conceded a feeble 69.1% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing tight ends: the 5th-best rate in the NFL.
When it comes to linebackers in defending receivers, New Orleans’s unit has been excellent this year, grading out as the 6th-best in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
30
Receiving Yards