Week 16 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Tucker Kraft from EV Insight

Tucker KraftReceiving Yards

Right now, Tucker Kraft’s receiving yards prop is set at 35.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 35.5 (-110) after it opened @ 36.5 (-110).

Pros

In this contest, Tucker Kraft is forecasted by the projections to finish in the 88th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 5.9 targets.
The model projects Tucker Kraft to be a much bigger part of his team’s pass attack in this contest (17.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (5.1% in games he has played).
When it comes to protecting the passer (and the strong effect it has on all pass game stats), the O-line of the Green Bay Packers ranks as the 10th-best in football this year.
With an exceptional 32.0 adjusted yards per game on passes (75th percentile) this year, Tucker Kraft rates among the top pass-game TEs in the league.
Tucker Kraft comes in as one of the most sure-handed receivers in football among tight ends, hauling in a remarkable 80.8% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 80th percentile.

Cons

With a 3.5-point advantage, the Packers are favored in this game, implying more of a reliance on rushing than their typical approach.
The projections expect the Packers to run the 7th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 63.1 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics.
The 9th-smallest volume of plays in football have been called by the Packers this year (a mere 56.1 per game on average).
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been hesitant to lean on the pass against the Panthers, averaging the fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 29.9 per game) this year.
This year, the daunting Carolina Panthers defense has given up a mere 41.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing tight ends: the 4th-best in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
44
Receiving Yards