Week 16 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Robert Woods from EV Insight

Robert WoodsReceiving Yards

Right now, Robert Woods’s receiving yards prop is set at 21.5 yards (-115/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 21.5 (-115) after it opened @ 21.5 (-115).

Pros

Robert Woods has run a route on 86.9% of his team’s passing plays this year, putting him in the 76th percentile among wide receivers.
The Houston Texans pass defense has struggled when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 5.66 yards-after-the-catch this year: the most in football.
The Houston Texans safeties profile as the worst collection of safeties in football this year in covering receivers.
The Tennessee Titans have been faced with a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Tennessee Titans have used play action on 30.3% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (7th-most in the league), tricking the defense into thinking it’s a run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.

Cons

The Titans are a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans as the least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 40.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 122.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 33.1 pass attempts per game against the Houston Texans defense this year: 7th-least in the NFL.
Robert Woods has totaled significantly fewer receiving yards per game (34.0) this year than he did last year (67.0).

Projection

THE BLITZ
21
Receiving Yards