Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Mitchell WilcoxReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Patriots vs. Bengals
Right now, Mitchell Wilcox’s receiving yards prop is set at 14.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 8th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 61.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 37.9 pass attempts per game against the New England Patriots defense this year: 6th-most in football.
- THE BLITZ projects Mitchell Wilcox to be a more integral piece of his offense’s passing offense this week (8.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (2.5% in games he has played).
- Mitchell Wilcox has been among the most sure-handed receivers in football among TEs, completing a stellar 91.3% of balls thrown his way this year, checking in at the 91st percentile.
- Mitchell Wilcox has been among the most efficient pass-catchers in the NFL among TEs, averaging a stellar 9.28 yards-per-target this year while grading out in the 83rd percentile.
Cons
- The Bengals are a 3-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely creating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals offense as the 8th-slowest paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 29.14 seconds per snap.
- The forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
- Mitchell Wilcox has notched a measly 4.0 air yards per game this year: a lowly 25th percentile among tight ends.
- The New England Patriots defense has yielded the 9th-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 41.0) versus tight ends this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
17
Receiving Yards
17
Receiving Yards
