Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Noah BrownReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Texans vs. Browns
Right now, Noah Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 40.5 yards (-113/-121).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 40.5 (-121) after it opened @ 41.5 (-115).
Pros
- The projections expect the Texans to call the 2nd-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 69.0 plays, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
- The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop-off.
- Our trusted projections expect Noah Brown to earn 8.6 targets in this game, on balance, placing him in the 91st percentile among wideouts.
- The leading projections forecast Noah Brown to be a much bigger part of his team’s air attack this week (24.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (17.9% in games he has played).
- Noah Brown has accumulated many more adjusted receiving yards per game (61.0) this year than he did last year (38.0).
Cons
- The leading projections forecast the Houston Texans to be the 10th-least pass-focused team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 59.0% pass rate.
- Opposing quarterbacks teams have been wary to rely on the passing game too much against the Cleveland Browns, averaging the 3rd-fewest attempts in the league (just 31.0 per game) this year.
- This year, the tough Cleveland Browns defense has yielded a puny 123.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing WRs: the 4th-best in football.
- This year, the formidable Browns defense has conceded a measly 54.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wideouts: the best rate in football.
- The Cleveland Browns linebackers grade out as the 8th-best LB corps in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
70
Receiving Yards
70
Receiving Yards
