Week 16 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Nico Collins

Nico CollinsReceiving Yards

Right now, Nico Collins’s receiving yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 49.5 (-110) after it opened @ 46.5 (-110).

Pros

This game’s line implies a passing game script for the Texans, who are -3-point underdogs.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is expected by our trusted projection set to see 136.0 plays on offense run: the 2nd-highest number on the slate this week.
The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop-off.
In this game, Nico Collins is projected by the model to rank in the 87th percentile among wide receivers with 8.1 targets.

Cons

The leading projections forecast the Houston Texans to be the 10th-least pass-focused team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 59.0% pass rate.
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been wary to rely on the passing game too much against the Cleveland Browns, averaging the 3rd-fewest attempts in the league (just 31.0 per game) this year.
This year, the tough Cleveland Browns defense has yielded a puny 123.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing WRs: the 4th-best in football.
This year, the formidable Browns defense has conceded a measly 54.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wideouts: the best rate in football.
The Cleveland Browns linebackers grade out as the 8th-best LB corps in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
69
Receiving Yards