Week 16 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Mike Gesicki from EV Insight

Mike GesickiReceiving Yards

Right now, Mike Gesicki’s receiving yards prop is set at 17.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 17.5 (-110) after it opened @ 20.5 (-110).

Pros

This week’s line suggests a passing game script for the Patriots, who are -6.5-point underdogs.
The Broncos defense has been gouged for the most adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (66.0) versus tight ends this year.
This year, the poor Broncos defense has been torched for the most adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing TEs: a colossal 9.14 yards.
As it relates to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, Denver’s collection of LBs has been lousy this year, ranking as the worst in the league.

Cons

The Patriots have been the 7th-least pass-heavy offense in the league (adjusted for context) this year with a 58.5% pass rate.
The leading projections forecast the Patriots to run the fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.8 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Mike Gesicki has compiled significantly fewer air yards this season (22.0 per game) than he did last season (30.0 per game).
The New England Patriots offensive line ranks as the 9th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
Mike Gesicki has notched many fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (16.0) this year than he did last year (25.0).

Projection

THE BLITZ
19
Receiving Yards