Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Michael PittmanReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Colts vs. Chargers
Right now, Michael Pittman’s receiving yards prop is set at 64.5 yards (-103/-133).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 64.5 (-133) after it opened @ 64.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Colts are a 3.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, which points towards a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 135.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Indianapolis Colts have run the 6th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 61.3 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- Michael Pittman has run a route on 98.3% of his team’s passing plays this year, putting him in the 99th percentile among WRs.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts as the least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 59.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 6th-least in football.
- Michael Pittman has put up far fewer air yards this season (63.0 per game) than he did last season (75.0 per game).
- The Indianapolis Colts O-line grades out as the worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all passing offense stats across the board.
- Michael Pittman’s receiving effectiveness has declined this year, compiling a mere 7.08 yards-per-target compared to a 8.64 mark last year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
74
Receiving Yards
74
Receiving Yards
