NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Juwan JohnsonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Browns vs. Saints
Right now, Juwan Johnson’s receiving yards prop is set at 26.5 yards (-106/-120).
The public has bet the OVER up to 26.5 (-106) after it opened @ 24.5 (-115).
Pros
- Juwan Johnson has been less involved as a potential target this year (68.5% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (34.6%).
- THE BLITZ projects Juwan Johnson to total 4.8 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 84th percentile among tight ends.
- Juwan Johnson has compiled many more air yards this year (38.0 per game) than he did last year (17.0 per game).
- Juwan Johnson has compiled quite a few more receiving yards per game (32.0) this year than he did last year (16.0).
- The Cleveland Browns pass defense has struggled when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, yielding an average of 6.06 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 5th-most in football.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints as the 8th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 52.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Saints to call the 11th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.2 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The New Orleans Saints have run the 10th-least plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 54.9 plays per game.
- The forecast calls for 25-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 33.0 pass attempts per game against the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 6th-least in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
25
Receiving Yards
25
Receiving Yards
