Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Kyle PittsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Falcons vs. Colts
Right now, Kyle Pitts’s receiving yards prop is set at 38.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is projected by the model to see 138.7 plays on offense called: the most among all games this week.
- The passing games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop-off.
- In this contest, Kyle Pitts is predicted by the model to place in the 92nd percentile when it comes to tight ends with 6.4 targets.
- The Atlanta Falcons offensive line grades out as the 7th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong influence on all passing offense stats across the board.
- Kyle Pitts checks in as one of the top pass-game tight ends this year, averaging a stellar 39.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 84th percentile.
Cons
- The leading projections forecast the Falcons as the 4th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 51.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing offenses teams have been reluctant to pass too much against the Indianapolis Colts, totaling the 6th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 32.7 per game) this year.
- After totaling 77.0 air yards per game last season, Kyle Pitts has seen a big downtick this season, currently sitting at 62.0 per game.
- Kyle Pitts’s 46.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive usage) has been quite a bit lower this year than it was last year at 63.1.
- Kyle Pitts’s 2.70 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this season reflects a meaningful regression in his efficiency in picking up extra yardage over last season’s 6.6% figure.
Projection
THE BLITZ
47
Receiving Yards
47
Receiving Yards
