Week 16 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Josh Downs from EV Insight

Josh DownsReceiving Yards

Right now, Josh Downs’s receiving yards prop is set at 45.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 45.5 (-110) after it opened @ 40.5 (-110).

Pros

The projections expect the Colts to be the 10th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 60.0% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects the Colts to run the 2nd-most total plays among all teams this week with 68.4 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
The 10th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Indianapolis Colts this year (a massive 60.3 per game on average).
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Josh Downs ranks as one of the most sure-handed receivers in the NFL, completing a fantastic 71.9% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, checking in at the 83rd percentile among WRs.

Cons

Opposing quarterbacks teams have been hesitant to lean on the pass against the Falcons, averaging the 10th-fewest attempts in the league (a mere 34.6 per game) this year.
This year, the stout Atlanta Falcons defense has given up a mere 124.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing wide receivers: the 5th-fewest in football.
This year, the strong Falcons defense has surrendered a mere 61.3% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing wideouts: the 6th-lowest rate in the league.

Projection

THE BLITZ
60
Receiving Yards