Week 16 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Jordan Akins from EV Insight

Jordan AkinsReceiving Yards

Right now, Jordan Akins’s receiving yards prop is set at 22.5 yards (-121/-113).

The public has bet the OVER up to 22.5 (-121) after it opened @ 14.5 (-113).

Pros

The Houston Texans will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.2% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The Texans are an enormous 14.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
Opposing QBs have averaged 43.1 pass attempts per game against the Tennessee Titans defense this year: most in the NFL.
Jordan Akins has garnered a colossal 9.1% of his team’s air yards this year: 77th percentile among TEs.
Jordan Akins’s 21.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially better this season than it was last season at 16.0.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Texans to call the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 59.9 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Houston Texans have run the 7th-least plays in football this year, averaging a mere 54.2 plays per game.
The Houston Texans offensive line profiles as the worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all passing game statistics across the board.
Jordan Akins’s receiving reliability have tailed off this year, with his Completion% falling off from 78.5% to 75.4%.
The Tennessee Titans safeties grade out as the 5th-best unit in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
25
Receiving Yards