Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Jake FergusonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Dolphins vs. Cowboys
Right now, Jake Ferguson’s receiving yards prop is set at 43.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 43.5 (-110) after it opened @ 42.5 (-114).
Pros
- The leading projections forecast the Dallas Cowboys as the 4th-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 61.2% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
- Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Cowboys are projected by the projection model to run 65.6 plays on offense in this contest: the 9th-most among all teams this week.
- The Dallas Cowboys have run the 4th-most plays in football this year, totaling a staggering 60.8 plays per game.
- The model projects Jake Ferguson to accrue 6.1 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 91st percentile when it comes to TEs.
- The Dolphins pass defense has been torched for the 7th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (78%) to TEs this year (78.0%).
Cons
- Jake Ferguson’s sure-handedness have declined this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate decreasing from 84.5% to 73.7%.
- The Dolphins pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency against tight ends this year, allowing 6.90 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 10th-fewest in football.
- The Miami Dolphins safeties profile as the 2nd-best group of safeties in the league this year in defending receivers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
45
Receiving Yards
45
Receiving Yards
