NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/14)
Alex Christenson
Isaiah LikelyReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 16
49ers vs. Ravens
Right now, Isaiah Likely’s receiving yards prop is set at 39.5 yards (-103/-127).
The public has bet the OVER up to 39.5 (-103) after it opened @ 35.5 (-110).
Pros
- At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Ravens are underdogs in this week’s game, suggesting more of a reliance on passing than their usual approach.
- The San Francisco 49ers defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, causing opposing QBs to attempt the 4th-most passes in the league (39.3 per game) this year.
- Our trusted projections expect Isaiah Likely to notch 6.0 targets in this week’s game, on balance, placing him in the 89th percentile among tight ends.
- While Isaiah Likely has accounted for 7.4% of his team’s targets in games he has played this year, the leading projections forecast him to be a much bigger part of Baltimore’s pass game in this week’s contest at 19.2%.
- Isaiah Likely’s 82.7% Adjusted Completion% this year reflects a noteworthy growth in his pass-catching skills over last year’s 65.4% mark.
Cons
- The projections expect the Baltimore Ravens to be the 10th-least pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 57.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
- Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Ravens are expected by the predictive model to run just 62.6 offensive plays in this game: the 2nd-lowest number on the slate this week.
- Isaiah Likely has put up far fewer air yards this year (10.0 per game) than he did last year (26.0 per game).
- The 49ers pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency against TEs this year, giving up 6.36 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 2nd-fewest in the league.
- The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has excelled when opposing TEs have gotten into space, conceding an average of 3.93 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 5th-fewest in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
43
Receiving Yards
43
Receiving Yards
