Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Gerald EverettReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Chargers vs. Bills
Right now, Gerald Everett’s receiving yards prop is set at 34.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 34.5 (-110) after it opened @ 30.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Los Angeles Chargers will be forced to use backup QB Easton Stick in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
- An extreme passing game script is suggested by the Chargers being a massive -12.5-point underdog this week.
- Our trusted projections expect the Chargers as the 3rd-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 62.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
- Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is expected by the predictive model to have 131.5 plays on offense called: the 4th-most among all games this week.
- Calm weather conditions (like the 1-mph wind being projected in this game) usually cause increased passing effectiveness, higher touchdown potential, higher air volume, and reduced ground volume.
Cons
- After averaging 31.0 air yards per game last year, Gerald Everett has regressed heavily this year, now boasting 18.0 per game.
- Gerald Everett’s 29.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this season reflects a substantial decrease in his receiving ability over last season’s 37.0 rate.
- Gerald Everett comes in as one of the least effective receivers in the league among tight ends, averaging just 6.70 adjusted yards-per-target this year while grading out in the 24th percentile.
- The Bills linebackers rank as the 9th-best group of LBs in football this year in defending receivers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
37
Receiving Yards
37
Receiving Yards
