NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Drake LondonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Falcons vs. Colts
Right now, Drake London’s receiving yards prop is set at 56.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 56.5 (-110) after it opened @ 52.5 (-110).
Pros
- Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is projected by the model to see 138.7 plays on offense called: the most among all games this week.
- The passing games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop-off.
- The predictive model expects Drake London to accumulate 7.5 targets this week, on balance, placing him in the 83rd percentile when it comes to WRs.
- When it comes to air yards, Drake London grades out in the towering 83rd percentile among wide receivers this year, totaling a staggering 77.0 per game.
- With an impressive 59.0 adjusted yards per game on passes (81st percentile) this year, Drake London ranks among the top pass-catching wide receivers in football.
Cons
- The leading projections forecast the Falcons as the 4th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 51.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing offenses teams have been reluctant to pass too much against the Indianapolis Colts, totaling the 6th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 32.7 per game) this year.
- Drake London has been a less important option in his offense’s air attack this season (23.6% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (29.1%).
- The Colts defense has given up the 8th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 139.0) versus WRs this year.
- The Colts pass defense has been quite strong when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, allowing an average of 3.28 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 4th-fewest in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
62
Receiving Yards
62
Receiving Yards
