Week 16 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Darren Waller from EV Insight

Darren WallerReceiving Yards

Right now, Darren Waller’s receiving yards prop is set at 35.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 35.5 (-110) after it opened @ 38.5 (-110).

Pros

This week’s spread implies an extreme throwing game script for the Giants, who are huge -14-point underdogs.
Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Giants to pass on 60.7% of their downs: the 7th-highest rate on the slate this week.
The Eagles defense has been something of pass funnel this year, allowing opposing QBs to attempt the most passes in the NFL (41.1 per game) this year.
In this week’s game, Darren Waller is forecasted by the model to rank in the 93rd percentile when it comes to TEs with 7.4 targets.
Darren Waller’s 50.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive volume) has been substantially higher this year than it was last year at 35.9.

Cons

Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Giants are forecasted by our trusted projection set to call only 63.3 plays on offense in this game: the 6th-fewest on the slate this week.
Darren Waller has notched quite a few less air yards this year (48.0 per game) than he did last year (65.0 per game).
The New York Giants O-line ranks as the worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a harmful influence on all pass attack statistics across the board.
Darren Waller’s receiving efficiency has tailed off this season, compiling just 7.66 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 9.78 mark last season.
When it comes to defensive ends pass-rushing, Philadelphia’s group of DEs has been exceptional this year, grading out as the 3rd-best in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
54
Receiving Yards