Week 16 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Dalton Kincaid from EV Insight

Dalton KincaidReceiving Yards

Right now, Dalton Kincaid’s receiving yards prop is set at 29.5 yards (-132/+102).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 29.5 (+102) after it opened @ 30.5 (-110).

Pros

The predictive model expects the Bills to call the 8th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 65.9 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.9 pass attempts per game versus the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 6th-most in football.
This week, Dalton Kincaid is predicted by our trusted projection set to find himself in the 83rd percentile among TEs with 5.2 targets.
With a sizeable 17.2% Target Rate (88th percentile) this year, Dalton Kincaid stands as one of the tight ends with the biggest workloads in football.
With a fantastic 39.0 adjusted receiving yards per game (84th percentile) this year, Dalton Kincaid stands as one of the leading pass-game TEs in the NFL.

Cons

An extreme rushing game script is suggested by the Bills being an enormous 12.5-point favorite in this game.
Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Buffalo Bills to pass on 55.2% of their plays: the 7th-lowest rate on the slate this week.
The Los Angeles Chargers linebackers project as the 6th-best LB corps in football this year when it comes to pass rush.

Projection

THE BLITZ
36
Receiving Yards