Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Dalton KincaidReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Chargers vs. Bills
Right now, Dalton Kincaid’s receiving yards prop is set at 29.5 yards (-132/+102).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 29.5 (+102) after it opened @ 30.5 (-110).
Pros
- The predictive model expects the Bills to call the 8th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 65.9 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.9 pass attempts per game versus the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 6th-most in football.
- This week, Dalton Kincaid is predicted by our trusted projection set to find himself in the 83rd percentile among TEs with 5.2 targets.
- With a sizeable 17.2% Target Rate (88th percentile) this year, Dalton Kincaid stands as one of the tight ends with the biggest workloads in football.
- With a fantastic 39.0 adjusted receiving yards per game (84th percentile) this year, Dalton Kincaid stands as one of the leading pass-game TEs in the NFL.
Cons
- An extreme rushing game script is suggested by the Bills being an enormous 12.5-point favorite in this game.
- Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Buffalo Bills to pass on 55.2% of their plays: the 7th-lowest rate on the slate this week.
- The Los Angeles Chargers linebackers project as the 6th-best LB corps in football this year when it comes to pass rush.
Projection
THE BLITZ
36
Receiving Yards
36
Receiving Yards
