Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Dallas GoedertReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Eagles vs. Giants
Right now, Dallas Goedert’s receiving yards prop is set at 40.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- To the extent of a defense’s impact on tempo, at 27.47 seconds per snap, the predictive model expects the Philadelphia Eagles as the 5th-fastest in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment.
- With an elite 87.5% Route% (97th percentile) this year, Dallas Goedert rates as one of the tight ends with the most usage in the NFL.
- The model projects Dallas Goedert to notch 5.3 targets in this game, on balance, putting him in the 83rd percentile among tight ends.
- When talking about air yards, Dallas Goedert ranks in the lofty 81st percentile among TEs this year, accruing a monstrous 30.0 per game.
- The Eagles O-line grades out as the best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive influence on all passing offense statistics across the board.
Cons
- An extreme rushing game script is indicated by the Eagles being a heavy 14-point favorite in this week’s contest.
- The predictive model expects the Philadelphia Eagles as the least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 48.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Dallas Goedert has totaled significantly fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (42.0) this season than he did last season (58.0).
- Dallas Goedert’s receiving reliability have diminished this year, with his Adjusted Catch% decreasing from 80.2% to 72.3%.
- This year, the stout New York Giants defense has yielded a mere 64.9% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing tight ends: the smallest rate in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
39
Receiving Yards
39
Receiving Yards
