Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Chris OlaveReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Rams vs. Saints
Right now, Chris Olave’s receiving yards prop is set at 60.5 yards (-120/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 60.5 (-120) after it opened @ 50.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Saints are a 4.5-point underdog in this week’s game, indicating a passing game script.
- Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Saints to pass on 60.8% of their downs: the 9th-highest frequency among all teams this week.
- Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the New Orleans Saints are forecasted by the model to call 67.2 total plays in this contest: the 6th-highest number on the slate this week.
- The New Orleans Saints have called the 3rd-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a staggering 61.4 plays per game.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 38.2 pass attempts per game against the Rams defense this year: 7th-most in football.
Cons
- As it relates to pass-blocking (and the importance it has on all pass attack statistics), the O-line of the New Orleans Saints profiles as the 6th-worst in football this year.
- With a poor 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (1st percentile) this year, Chris Olave stands as one of the top WRs in the NFL in the NFL in the open field.
- The Rams pass defense has conceded the 2nd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (55.8%) to wide receivers this year (55.8%).
- The Rams pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency against wideouts this year, giving up 7.33 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 6th-fewest in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
79
Receiving Yards
79
Receiving Yards
