Week 16 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Adam Thielen from EV Insight

Adam ThielenReceiving Yards

Right now, Adam Thielen’s receiving yards prop is set at 46.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 46.5 (-110) after it opened @ 47.5 (-114).

Pros

The Panthers are a 3.5-point underdog in this week’s game, which points towards a passing game script.
The 2nd-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Panthers this year (a monstrous 63.2 per game on average).
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and lower ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
In this contest, Adam Thielen is expected by the projections to place in the 88th percentile when it comes to WRs with 8.2 targets.
Adam Thielen’s 67.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this year indicates a material improvement in his pass-catching prowess over last year’s 47.0 rate.

Cons

Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Panthers to pass on 53.8% of their downs: the 5th-lowest rate on the slate this week.
The leading projections forecast this game to have the 4th-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 33.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Packers defense this year: 8th-fewest in the league.
When it comes to pass-blocking (and the effect it has on all pass attack statistics), the offensive line of the Carolina Panthers profiles as the 3rd-worst in football this year.
The Green Bay Packers defensive ends rank as the 5th-best DE corps in the league this year with their pass rush.

Projection

THE BLITZ
62
Receiving Yards