Week 16 Player Props: Receiving Yards for A.J. Brown from EV Insight

A.J. BrownReceiving Yards

Right now, A.J. Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 77.5 yards (-137/+100).

The public has bet the OVER up to 77.5 (-137) after it opened @ 73.5 (-119).

Pros

To the extent of a defense’s impact on tempo, at 27.47 seconds per snap, the predictive model expects the Philadelphia Eagles as the 5th-fastest in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment.
The leading projections forecast A.J. Brown to accumulate 9.0 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 94th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
After accumulating 104.0 air yards per game last year, A.J. Brown has seen a big uptick this year, currently pacing 121.0 per game.
A.J. Brown has accrued substantially more adjusted receiving yards per game (94.0) this year than he did last year (80.0).
The New York Giants defense has conceded the 6th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in football (171.0) vs. wideouts this year.

Cons

An extreme rushing game script is indicated by the Eagles being a heavy 14-point favorite in this week’s contest.
The predictive model expects the Philadelphia Eagles as the least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 48.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

Projection

THE BLITZ
82
Receiving Yards