Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
A.J. BrownReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Eagles vs. Giants
Right now, A.J. Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 77.5 yards (-137/+100).
The public has bet the OVER up to 77.5 (-137) after it opened @ 73.5 (-119).
Pros
- To the extent of a defense’s impact on tempo, at 27.47 seconds per snap, the predictive model expects the Philadelphia Eagles as the 5th-fastest in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment.
- The leading projections forecast A.J. Brown to accumulate 9.0 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 94th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
- After accumulating 104.0 air yards per game last year, A.J. Brown has seen a big uptick this year, currently pacing 121.0 per game.
- A.J. Brown has accrued substantially more adjusted receiving yards per game (94.0) this year than he did last year (80.0).
- The New York Giants defense has conceded the 6th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in football (171.0) vs. wideouts this year.
Cons
- An extreme rushing game script is indicated by the Eagles being a heavy 14-point favorite in this week’s contest.
- The predictive model expects the Philadelphia Eagles as the least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 48.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Projection
THE BLITZ
82
Receiving Yards
82
Receiving Yards
