Week 16 Player Props: Passing Yards for Tua Tagovailoa from EV Insight

Tua TagovailoaPassing Yards

Right now, Tua Tagovailoa’s passing yards prop is set at 268.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the OVER up to 268.5 (-115) after it opened @ 264.5 (-115).

Pros

Our trusted projections expect the Miami Dolphins to be the 9th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 63.4% pass rate.
Tua Tagovailoa’s 284.0 adjusted passing yards per game this season indicates a meaningful improvement in his passing skills over last season’s 253.0 rate.
Tua Tagovailoa’s 70.8% Adjusted Completion% this year represents a meaningful progression in his throwing precision over last year’s 64.0% rate.
With an outstanding 8.68 adjusted yards-per-target (97th percentile) this year, Tua Tagovailoa stands among the most efficient passers in the NFL.

Cons

At the present time, the 3rd-most sluggish paced team in the league (in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the Miami Dolphins.
The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been hesitant to test the pass defense of the Dallas Cowboys, averaging the 2nd-fewest attempts in the NFL (a measly 30.4 per game) this year.
This year, the tough Cowboys defense has given up a measly 193.0 adjusted yards per game through the air to opposing QBs: the 4th-fewest in the NFL.
This year, the formidable Dallas Cowboys defense has allowed a paltry 63.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 3rd-smallest rate in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
264
Passing Yards