Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Tua TagovailoaPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Dolphins vs. Cowboys
Right now, Tua Tagovailoa’s passing yards prop is set at 268.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 268.5 (-115) after it opened @ 264.5 (-115).
Pros
- Our trusted projections expect the Miami Dolphins to be the 9th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 63.4% pass rate.
- Tua Tagovailoa’s 284.0 adjusted passing yards per game this season indicates a meaningful improvement in his passing skills over last season’s 253.0 rate.
- Tua Tagovailoa’s 70.8% Adjusted Completion% this year represents a meaningful progression in his throwing precision over last year’s 64.0% rate.
- With an outstanding 8.68 adjusted yards-per-target (97th percentile) this year, Tua Tagovailoa stands among the most efficient passers in the NFL.
Cons
- At the present time, the 3rd-most sluggish paced team in the league (in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the Miami Dolphins.
- The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
- Opposing quarterbacks teams have been hesitant to test the pass defense of the Dallas Cowboys, averaging the 2nd-fewest attempts in the NFL (a measly 30.4 per game) this year.
- This year, the tough Cowboys defense has given up a measly 193.0 adjusted yards per game through the air to opposing QBs: the 4th-fewest in the NFL.
- This year, the formidable Dallas Cowboys defense has allowed a paltry 63.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 3rd-smallest rate in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
264
Passing Yards
264
Passing Yards
