Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Trevor SiemianPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Jets vs. Commanders
Right now, Trevor Siemian’s passing yards prop is set at 212.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 212.5 (-110) after it opened @ 204.5 (-110).
Pros
- The projections expect the Jets to be the 9th-most pass-heavy offense in football (adjusted for context) right now with a 63.4% pass rate.
- At just 27.18 seconds per play, the Jets offense grades out as the 10th-quickest paced in the NFL (context-neutralized) this year.
- The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, and lower ground volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- This year, the porous Commanders defense has given up a whopping 267.0 adjusted passing yards per game to opposing QBs: the 3rd-most in football.
- This year, the weak Washington Commanders defense has surrendered the most adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing teams: a whopping 8.61 yards.
Cons
- With a 3-point advantage, the Jets are favored this week, implying more of a reliance on running than their usual game plan.
- When talking about pocket protection (and the effect it has on all pass game statistics), the offensive line of the New York Jets ranks as the 2nd-worst in football this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
215
Passing Yards
215
Passing Yards
