Week 16 Player Props: Passing Yards for Russell Wilson from EV Insight

Russell WilsonPassing Yards

Right now, Russell Wilson’s passing yards prop is set at 215.5 yards (-115/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 215.5 (-110) after it opened @ 221.5 (-115).

Pros

The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.9% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The weather forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 8th-highest clip in the NFL against the Los Angeles Rams defense this year (72.4%).
The Los Angeles Rams safeties project as the 6th-worst collection of safeties in football this year in pass coverage.
The Denver Broncos offensive line has allowed their quarterback 2.68 seconds before the pass (6th-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.

Cons

The Broncos are a 3-point favorite in this week’s game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos as the 4th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 59.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-least plays run out of all the games this week at 127.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Russell Wilson to attempt 34.9 passes in this week’s game, on average: the 3rd-least of all quarterbacks.
Russell Wilson’s passing accuracy has diminished this year, with his Completion% falling off from 65.3% to 59.3%.

Projection

THE BLITZ
251
Passing Yards