Week 16 Player Props: Passing Yards for Russell Wilson from EV Insight

Russell WilsonPassing Yards

Right now, Russell Wilson’s passing yards prop is set at 212.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 212.5 (-110) after it opened @ 207.5 (-110).

Pros

Opposing offenses have averaged 37.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Patriots defense this year: 10th-most in football.
The Denver O-line grades out as the 4th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all air attack metrics across the board.
Russell Wilson’s throwing precision has gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 59.3% to 66.2%.
This year, the feeble New England Patriots defense has allowed a staggering 72.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 10th-biggest rate in the league.
As it relates to cornerbacks in covering pass-catchers, New England’s group of CBs has been dreadful this year, grading out as the 9th-worst in the league.

Cons

This game’s spread suggests a running game script for the Broncos, who are favored by 6.5 points.
The model projects the Broncos as the 3rd-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 50.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is expected by the projection model to see only 124.4 offensive plays called: the 2nd-fewest among all games this week.
The Denver Broncos have called the 3rd-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a mere 53.9 plays per game.
In this week’s game, Russell Wilson is projected by the model to average the 3rd-fewest pass attempts out of all QBs with 29.5.

Projection

THE BLITZ
202
Passing Yards