Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Malik WillisPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Titans vs. Texans
Right now, Malik Willis’s passing yards prop is set at 118.5 yards (-113/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 118.5 (-115) after it opened @ 125.5 (-113).
Pros
- The Houston Texans defense has struggled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 5.80 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 4th-most in the league.
- The Houston Texans safeties profile as the worst collection of safeties in football this year in covering receivers.
- The Tennessee Titans have been faced with a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
- The Tennessee Titans have used play action on 30.3% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (7th-most in the league), tricking the defense into thinking it’s a run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.
- The Tennessee Titans have gone no-huddle on 11.3% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (10th-most in the league). This speeds up the pace, leading to more volume and stat production.
Cons
- The Titans are a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely creating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans as the least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 40.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 122.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Tennessee Titans have called the least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 52.9 plays per game.
- Opposing teams have averaged 33.1 pass attempts per game against the Houston Texans defense this year: 7th-least in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
124
Passing Yards
124
Passing Yards
