Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Gardner MinshewPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Falcons vs. Colts
Right now, Gardner Minshew’s passing yards prop is set at 224.5 yards (+112/-143).
The public has bet the OVER up to 224.5 (+112) after it opened @ 218.5 (-115).
Pros
- The projections expect the Colts to be the 10th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 60.0% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
- The predictive model expects the Colts to run the 2nd-most total plays among all teams this week with 68.4 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
- The 10th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Indianapolis Colts this year (a massive 60.3 per game on average).
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- In this game, Gardner Minshew is forecasted by the predictive model to average the 3rd-most pass attempts among all QBs with 38.6.
Cons
- Opposing quarterbacks teams have been hesitant to lean on the pass against the Falcons, averaging the 10th-fewest attempts in the league (a mere 34.6 per game) this year.
- Gardner Minshew’s pass-game efficiency has tailed off this season, totaling just 6.68 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a 7.77 rate last season.
- This year, the stout Falcons defense has allowed a feeble 66.7% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 6th-smallest rate in the NFL.
- The Atlanta Falcons defense has performed very well when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 4.14 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 3rd-fewest in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
250
Passing Yards
250
Passing Yards
