Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Derek CarrPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Rams vs. Saints
Right now, Derek Carr’s passing yards prop is set at 230.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 230.5 (-110) after it opened @ 215.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Saints are a 4.5-point underdog in this week’s game, indicating a passing game script.
- Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Saints to pass on 60.8% of their downs: the 9th-highest frequency among all teams this week.
- Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the New Orleans Saints are forecasted by the model to call 67.2 total plays in this contest: the 6th-highest number on the slate this week.
- The New Orleans Saints have called the 3rd-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a staggering 61.4 plays per game.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 38.2 pass attempts per game against the Rams defense this year: 7th-most in football.
Cons
- As it relates to pass-blocking (and the importance it has on all pass attack statistics), the O-line of the New Orleans Saints profiles as the 6th-worst in football this year.
- Derek Carr’s 212.0 adjusted passing yards per game this season illustrates a noteable drop-off in his throwing proficiency over last season’s 237.0 mark.
- Derek Carr rates as one of the worst per-play quarterbacks in the NFL this year, averaging a measly 6.62 adjusted yards-per-target while grading out in the lowly 21st percentile.
- Opposing teams have completed passes at the 3rd-lowest level in football against the Rams defense this year (63.6% Adjusted Completion%).
- This year, the strong Rams defense has conceded the 7th-least adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing teams: a paltry 7.0 yards.
Projection
THE BLITZ
264
Passing Yards
264
Passing Yards
