Week 16 Player Props: Passing Yards for Davis Mills from EV Insight

Davis MillsPassing Yards

Right now, Davis Mills’s passing yards prop is set at 170.5 yards (-113/-115).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 170.5 (-115) after it opened @ 174.5 (-113).

Pros

The Houston Texans will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.2% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The Texans are an enormous 14.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
Opposing QBs have averaged 43.1 pass attempts per game against the Tennessee Titans defense this year: most in the NFL.
Opposing quarterbacks have thrown for the most yards in the NFL (304.0 per game) vs. the Tennessee Titans defense this year.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 7th-highest level in the NFL vs. the Tennessee Titans defense this year (73.0%).

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Texans to call the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 59.9 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Houston Texans have run the 7th-least plays in football this year, averaging a mere 54.2 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Davis Mills to attempt 24.4 passes in this game, on average: the 4th-least of all quarterbacks.
The Houston Texans offensive line profiles as the worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all passing game statistics across the board.
Davis Mills’s passing accuracy has diminished this season, with his Completion% falling off from 65.1% to 61.7%.

Projection

THE BLITZ
149
Passing Yards