Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Dak PrescottPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Dolphins vs. Cowboys
Right now, Dak Prescott’s passing yards prop is set at 270.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 270.5 (-110) after it opened @ 265.5 (-114).
Pros
- The leading projections forecast the Dallas Cowboys as the 4th-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 61.2% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
- Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Cowboys are projected by the projection model to run 65.6 plays on offense in this contest: the 9th-most among all teams this week.
- The Dallas Cowboys have run the 4th-most plays in football this year, totaling a staggering 60.8 plays per game.
- Dak Prescott’s 270.0 adjusted passing yards per game this year represents a remarkable progression in his throwing proficiency over last year’s 241.0 rate.
- This year, the anemic Miami Dolphins defense has allowed a monstrous 72.9% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 7th-highest rate in the league.
Cons
- The Dolphins defense has performed very well when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 3.93 yards-after-the-catch this year: the fewest in the NFL.
- The Miami Dolphins safeties profile as the 2nd-best group of safeties in the league this year in defending receivers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
269
Passing Yards
269
Passing Yards
