Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Travis EtienneRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Jaguars vs. Cowboys
Right now, Travis Etienne’s rushing yards prop is set at 62.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 62.5 (-110) after it opened @ 64.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 139.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Travis Etienne to garner 17.5 rush attempts in this game, on average, placing him in the 92nd percentile among running backs.
- THE BLITZ projects Travis Etienne to be a much bigger part of his team’s rushing attack this week (64.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (51.9% in games he has played).
- Travis Etienne has picked up 62.0 yards per game on the ground this year, one of the highest figures in the NFL among RBs (85th percentile).
Cons
- The Jacksonville Jaguars boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.8% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- The Jaguars are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 11th-least run-centric team on the slate this week with a 39.4% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line ranks as the worst in the league this year in run blocking.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have incorporated motion in their offense on 33.0% of their plays since the start of last season (9th-least in the NFL), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.
Projection
THE BLITZ
85
Rushing Yards
85
Rushing Yards
