Week 15 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Saquon Barkley from EV Insight

Saquon BarkleyRushing Yards

Right now, Saquon Barkley’s rushing yards prop is set at 65.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 65.5 (-110) after it opened @ 66.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants to be the 9th-most run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 46.8% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants to be the 6th-quickest paced defense in football (adjusted for context) at the moment, with opposing offenses averaging 27.50 seconds per snap.
THE BLITZ projects Saquon Barkley to accumulate 18.0 rush attempts this week, on average, ranking in the 94th percentile among running backs.
Saquon Barkley has rushed for quite a few more yards per game (78.0) this year than he did last year (41.0).
Saquon Barkley’s running effectiveness has gotten a boost this season, averaging 4.06 yards-per-carry vs just 3.28 rate last season.

Cons

The Giants are an enormous 7.5-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Saquon Barkley to be a much smaller piece of his offense’s running game this week (60.0% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (72.3% in games he has played).
The New York Giants offensive line profiles as the 9th-worst in the NFL this year at blocking for rushers.
Opposing squads have rushed for the 9th-least yards in the league (just 109 per game) against the Washington Commanders defense this year.
The Washington Commanders safeties profile as the 4th-best unit in the NFL this year when it comes to run defense.

Projection

THE BLITZ
79
Rushing Yards