Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Saquon BarkleyRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Commanders vs. Giants
Right now, Saquon Barkley’s rushing yards prop is set at 65.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 65.5 (-110) after it opened @ 66.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants to be the 9th-most run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 46.8% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants to be the 6th-quickest paced defense in football (adjusted for context) at the moment, with opposing offenses averaging 27.50 seconds per snap.
- THE BLITZ projects Saquon Barkley to accumulate 18.0 rush attempts this week, on average, ranking in the 94th percentile among running backs.
- Saquon Barkley has rushed for quite a few more yards per game (78.0) this year than he did last year (41.0).
- Saquon Barkley’s running effectiveness has gotten a boost this season, averaging 4.06 yards-per-carry vs just 3.28 rate last season.
Cons
- The Giants are an enormous 7.5-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects Saquon Barkley to be a much smaller piece of his offense’s running game this week (60.0% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (72.3% in games he has played).
- The New York Giants offensive line profiles as the 9th-worst in the NFL this year at blocking for rushers.
- Opposing squads have rushed for the 9th-least yards in the league (just 109 per game) against the Washington Commanders defense this year.
- The Washington Commanders safeties profile as the 4th-best unit in the NFL this year when it comes to run defense.
Projection
THE BLITZ
79
Rushing Yards
79
Rushing Yards
