Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tony PollardRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Jaguars vs. Cowboys
Right now, Tony Pollard’s rushing yards prop is set at 52.5 yards (-110/-120).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 52.5 (-120) after it opened @ 52.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Cowboys are a huge 17.5-point favorite in this week’s game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys as the 10th-most run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 45.3% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 139.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The weatherman calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
- Tony Pollard has rushed for a lot more yards per game (63.0) this year than he did last year (43.0).
Cons
- The Jacksonville Jaguars defensive tackles rank as the 9th-best group of DTs in the NFL this year in regard to stopping the run.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have stacked the box against opponents on 22.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
59
Rushing Yards
59
Rushing Yards
