Week 15 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Javonte Williams from EV Insight

Javonte WilliamsRushing Yards

Right now, Javonte Williams’s rushing yards prop is set at 53.5 yards (-125/-109).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 53.5 (-109) after it opened @ 60.5 (-119).

Pros

With a 41.4% rate of running the ball (in a neutral context) this year, the 7th-most run-oriented offense in football has been the Denver Broncos.
The predictive model expects Javonte Williams to accumulate 13.6 rush attempts in this week’s game, on balance, placing him in the 81st percentile among running backs.
Out of all running backs, Javonte Williams grades out in the 88th percentile for carries this year, comprising 55.1% of the workload in his team’s run game.
With an outstanding total of 53.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (82nd percentile), Javonte Williams has been among the leading pure rushers in the NFL this year.

Cons

A throwing game script is suggested by the Broncos being a -4.5-point underdog in this week’s contest.
Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Broncos are predicted by our trusted projection set to call just 61.6 total plays in this contest: the 2nd-lowest number on the slate this week.
The Broncos have run the 3rd-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling just 53.6 plays per game.
The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm “weather” conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop.
The Detroit Lions defense has had the 6th-best efficiency against opposing ground games this year, surrendering just 3.91 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC).

Projection

THE BLITZ
56
Rushing Yards