Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Amon-Ra St. BrownReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Lions vs. Broncos
Right now, Amon-Ra St. Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 69.5 yards (-110/-120).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 69.5 (-120) after it opened @ 69.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Detroit Lions have run the 8th-most plays in football this year, totaling a staggering 60.6 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown has run a route on 94.3% of his offense’s passing plays this year, putting him in the 95th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown has put up many more adjusted receiving yards per game (92.0) this year than he did last year (77.0).
- The Broncos pass defense has exhibited bad efficiency vs. WRs this year, surrendering 8.88 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 7th-most in the league.
Cons
- This week’s line suggests a running game script for the Lions, who are favored by 4.5 points.
- The projections expect the Lions to be the 7th-least pass-heavy offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now with a 58.5% pass rate.
- The projections expect this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 124.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Projection
THE BLITZ
87
Receiving Yards
87
Receiving Yards
