Week 15 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Ezekiel Elliott from EV Insight

Ezekiel ElliottRushing Yards

Right now, Ezekiel Elliott’s rushing yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (-114/-114).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 59.5 (-114) after it opened @ 60.5 (-114).

Pros

With a 41.7% rate of running the ball (in a neutral context) this year, the 6th-most run-focused team in the league has been the New England Patriots.
At only 26.68 seconds per play, the Patriots offense rates as the 5th-quickest paced in the NFL (in a neutral context) this year.
In this week’s contest, Ezekiel Elliott is projected by the projection model to slot into the 100th percentile when it comes to running backs with 21.1 carries.
While Ezekiel Elliott has received 40.7% of his team’s carries in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be a more integral piece of New England’s running game in this game at 78.6%.
The Chiefs safeties grade out as the 26th-worst collection of safeties in the league this year when it comes to stopping the run.

Cons

The Patriots are a 3.5-point underdog in this week’s game, likely creating a passing game script.
Ezekiel Elliott’s 36.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this season illustrates a noteworthy decrease in his rushing talent over last season’s 61.0 rate.
Ezekiel Elliott’s running efficiency (3.53 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the NFL this year (18th percentile when it comes to running backs).

Projection

THE BLITZ
84
Rushing Yards