Week 15 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Devon Achane from EV Insight

Devon AchaneRushing Yards

Right now, Devon Achane’s rushing yards prop is set at 43.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 43.5 (-110) after it opened @ 38.5 (-110).

Pros

This week’s line implies an extreme running game script for the Dolphins, who are a huge favorite by 7 points.
The forecast calls for 23-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
The Miami Dolphins offensive line ranks as the 7th-best in the league last year at opening holes for rushers.
Devon Achane has averaged 82.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year, one of the largest figures in the NFL among running backs (98th percentile).
Devon Achane’s ground efficiency (9.07 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in the league this year (99th percentile among running backs).

Cons

Right now, the 10th-least run-heavy team in the NFL (36.5% in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Dolphins.
The predictive model expects this game to see the 4th-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The 6th-lowest number of plays in football have been called by the Dolphins this year (a mere 55.6 per game on average).
The New York Jets defense has had the 9th-best efficiency against opposing running games this year, allowing just 4.08 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC).
The New York Jets linebackers rank as the 6th-best unit in the league this year when it comes to run defense.

Projection

THE BLITZ
49
Rushing Yards