NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Devon AchaneRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Dolphins vs. Jets
Right now, Devon Achane’s rushing yards prop is set at 43.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 43.5 (-110) after it opened @ 38.5 (-110).
Pros
- This week’s line implies an extreme running game script for the Dolphins, who are a huge favorite by 7 points.
- The forecast calls for 23-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
- The Miami Dolphins offensive line ranks as the 7th-best in the league last year at opening holes for rushers.
- Devon Achane has averaged 82.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year, one of the largest figures in the NFL among running backs (98th percentile).
- Devon Achane’s ground efficiency (9.07 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in the league this year (99th percentile among running backs).
Cons
- Right now, the 10th-least run-heavy team in the NFL (36.5% in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Dolphins.
- The predictive model expects this game to see the 4th-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The 6th-lowest number of plays in football have been called by the Dolphins this year (a mere 55.6 per game on average).
- The New York Jets defense has had the 9th-best efficiency against opposing running games this year, allowing just 4.08 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC).
- The New York Jets linebackers rank as the 6th-best unit in the league this year when it comes to run defense.
Projection
THE BLITZ
49
Rushing Yards
49
Rushing Yards
