NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Austin EkelerRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Chargers vs. Titans
Right now, Austin Ekeler’s rushing yards prop is set at 41.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 41.5 (-110) after it opened @ 40.5 (-116).
Pros
- The Chargers are a 3-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
- The Los Angeles Chargers have called the 2nd-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a whopping 63.4 plays per game.
- Austin Ekeler has garnered 59.3% of his offense’s rush attempts this year, putting him in the 93rd percentile among running backs.
- The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box against opponents on just 10.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in football. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
- The Los Angeles Chargers have elected to go for it on 4th down 27.6% of the time since the start of last season (2nd-most in the NFL), which usually means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive metrics across the board.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers as the 3rd-least run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 34.4% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-least plays run out of all the games this week at 127.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The weatherman calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
- Austin Ekeler has rushed for a lot fewer yards per game (50.0) this season than he did last season (61.0).
- Opposing teams have rushed for the 2nd-least yards in the league (just 79 per game) vs. the Tennessee Titans defense this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
54
Rushing Yards
54
Rushing Yards
