Week 15 Player Props: Passing Yards for Brock Purdy from EV Insight

Brock PurdyPassing Yards

Right now, Brock Purdy’s passing yards prop is set at 224.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the OVER up to 224.5 (-115) after it opened @ 214.5 (-115).

Pros

The Seattle Seahawks pass defense has shown bad efficiency this year, conceding 8.17 yards-per-target: the 8th-most in football.
The Seattle Seahawks defense has been vulnerable when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 6.55 yards-after-the-catch this year: the most in the NFL.
The Seattle Seahawks linebackers project as the 4th-worst LB corps in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
The San Francisco 49ers have gone up against a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Seattle Seahawks have stacked the box against opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Cons

The 49ers are a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 7th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 51.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to play at the 11th-most sluggish pace on the slate this week, averaging 26.87 seconds per play accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 32.9 pass attempts per game against the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 6th-least in football.
The San Francisco 49ers have gone no-huddle on a lowly 3.4% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (7th-least in the NFL). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.

Projection

THE BLITZ
208
Passing Yards