Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Brock PurdyPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Seahawks vs. 49ers
Right now, Brock Purdy’s passing yards prop is set at 224.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 224.5 (-115) after it opened @ 214.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Seattle Seahawks pass defense has shown bad efficiency this year, conceding 8.17 yards-per-target: the 8th-most in football.
- The Seattle Seahawks defense has been vulnerable when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 6.55 yards-after-the-catch this year: the most in the NFL.
- The Seattle Seahawks linebackers project as the 4th-worst LB corps in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
- The San Francisco 49ers have gone up against a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
- The Seattle Seahawks have stacked the box against opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Cons
- The 49ers are a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s game, indicating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 7th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 51.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to play at the 11th-most sluggish pace on the slate this week, averaging 26.87 seconds per play accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 32.9 pass attempts per game against the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 6th-least in football.
- The San Francisco 49ers have gone no-huddle on a lowly 3.4% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (7th-least in the NFL). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.
Projection
THE BLITZ
208
Passing Yards
208
Passing Yards
