Week 15 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Antonio Gibson from EV Insight

Antonio GibsonRushing Yards

Right now, Antonio Gibson’s rushing yards prop is set at 44.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the OVER up to 44.5 (-115) after it opened @ 36.5 (-120).

Pros

The predictive model expects Antonio Gibson to be a more important option in his offense’s running game in this week’s game (52.1% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (16.7% in games he has played).
With an outstanding total of 3.46 yards after contact (90th percentile), Antonio Gibson stands among the unyielding RBs in football this year.

Cons

At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Commanders are underdogs in this week’s contest, indicating more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their usual game plan.
Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Commanders to run on 33.8% of their opportunities: the lowest clip among all teams this week.
The model projects the Commanders offense to be the 8th-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 28.46 seconds per snap.
The Washington offensive line profiles as the 9th-worst in the league last year at blocking for rushers.
Antonio Gibson has run for a lot fewer adjusted yards per game (15.0) this year than he did last year (35.0).

Projection

THE BLITZ
46
Rushing Yards