MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 5/15)
Josh Gross
College football’s bowl season is upon us, and I am a huge fan of wagering on these contests because there is value to be had. There are a couple of things you need to consider when looking at these matchups, beginning with remembering that this is not week three of the regular season. These games are completely different because there are opt outs, guys in the transfer portal and coaching changes to consider. Also, motivation is a huge factor because some teams clearly don’t want to be in their game while others do.
Saturday there are several bowls being played. Below, I’m going to focus on the L.A. Bowl in Inglewood California between UCLA and Boise State.
All odds are per DraftKings Sportsbook.
Boise State vs. UCLA
7:30 p.m. ET Saturday
UCLA -4.5
Boise State
The Broncos have a pretty clean slate when it comes to the transfer portal, although one of the two players there is quarterback Taylen Green, who has already chosen Arkansas as his next destination and won’t play Saturday. Complicating things a little there is that Maddux Madsen, who played a lot for the Broncos, is out for the season with an injury. This means true freshman CJ Tiller and walk-on Colt Fulton will be under center with Tiller getting most of the first-team reps. Neither signal caller has any experience so that will hinder Boise State. The best thing going for them is that RBs Ashton Jeanty and George Holani are both available and willing to carry the offense.
UCLA
This side of the contest is a little more complicated because there are a lot of losses. We will start with the coaching staff where defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn departed for USC while QB coach Ryan Gunderson is now the new OC at Oregon State. One other part of the staff is not there as TE’s coach Jeff Faris is now the head coach at Austin Peay. On the field, the Bruins have QB Dante Moore, RB/WR Keegan Jones, WR Kam Brown, TE Carsen Ryan, S William Nimmo, S Kamari Ramsey and CB John Humphrey all in the portal. Joining them in not playing in this game is heralded DE Laiatu Latu who was the conference’s defensive player of the year. Finally, RB Carson Steele was not at practice Monday and Tuesday and his status is up in the air as well.
Prediction
All of those losses for UCLA, and yet the line has gone from Bruins -2.5 to Bruins -4.5 with some places heavily juiced to the favorite. This is a team that lost three of their last four games and saw rumors that Chip Kelly was going to be let go after the season. They are 2-4 against other bowl teams, so it’s not like they were tremendous in games against squads with winning records. On the other side, you have a highly motivated Boise State that loves playing for once interim, now permanent head coach Spencer Danielson. The Broncos are going to run the ball a ton with Jeanty and Holani into a UCLA DL that is missing one of its stars. I’m not a fan of Boise’s defense as it features one of the worst passing defenses in the country. The question is if Ethan Garbers can take advantage of it with a slightly worse group of skill position players. To me, this one feels like an under with both teams struggling to score.
The Picks
Under 48.5 & Boise State Under 23.5 (-145)
