Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Aaron JonesRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Packers vs. Buccaneers
Right now, Aaron Jones’s rushing yards prop is set at 37.5 yards (+104/-142).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 37.5 (-142) after it opened @ 49.5 (-117).
Pros
- A rushing game script is indicated by the Packers being a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s contest.
- Among all RBs, Aaron Jones grades out in the 79th percentile for rush attempts this year, comprising 41.8% of the workload in his team’s ground game.
- When talking about run-blocking (and the significance it has on all ground game metrics), the offensive line of the Green Bay Packers grades out as the 6th-best in football last year.
- As it relates to the defensive ends’ role in run defense, Tampa Bay’s unit has been terrible this year, grading out as the worst in football. in football.
Cons
- Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 3rd-smallest number of plays run among all games this week at 127.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Packers have called the 10th-fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a lowly 56.4 plays per game.
- Aaron Jones’s 35.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this season represents a meaningful reduction in his rushing skills over last season’s 64.0 mark.
- Aaron Jones’s rushing efficiency has tailed off this year, notching just 3.72 adjusted yards-per-carry vs a 5.13 rate last year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
47
Rushing Yards
47
Rushing Yards
