Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tyreek HillReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Dolphins vs. Jets
Right now, Tyreek Hill’s receiving yards prop is set at 76.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- In this week’s contest, Tyreek Hill is projected by the predictive model to find himself in the 97th percentile among wide receivers with 10.3 targets.
- Tyreek Hill has been heavily involved in his team’s passing offense, garnering a Target Share of 31.0% this year, which puts him in the 97th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
- Tyreek Hill has notched substantially more adjusted receiving yards per game (110.0) this season than he did last season (92.0).
- Tyreek Hill’s 75.8% Adjusted Completion% this season conveys a significant progression in his receiving prowess over last season’s 70.8% rate.
- Tyreek Hill’s pass-game effectiveness has gotten better this season, compiling 11.16 adjusted yards-per-target compared to just 9.41 mark last season.
Cons
- This week’s line implies an extreme running game script for the Dolphins, who are a huge favorite by 8.5 points.
- Our trusted projections expect the Dolphins as the 11th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 55.8% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
- The predictive model expects this game to see the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The 6th-lowest number of plays in football have been called by the Dolphins this year (a mere 55.6 per game on average).
- Opposing teams have averaged 32.8 pass attempts per game vs. the New York Jets defense this year: 5th-fewest in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
81
Receiving Yards
81
Receiving Yards
