Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Keenan AllenReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Chargers vs. Titans
Right now, Keenan Allen’s receiving yards prop is set at 71.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 71.5 (-110) after it opened @ 71.5 (-113).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers as the 3rd-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 65.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Los Angeles Chargers have called the 2nd-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a whopping 63.4 plays per game.
- The weatherman calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 43.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Tennessee Titans defense this year: most in the NFL.
- Keenan Allen has been among the leading WRs in the league this year, averaging a terrific 69.0 yards per game while checking in at the 89th percentile.
Cons
- The Chargers are a 3-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-least plays run out of all the games this week at 127.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Keenan Allen has been used less as a potential target this year (75.7% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (91.2%).
- The Tennessee Titans pass defense has performed very well when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 3.87 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 6th-least in the NFL.
- The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box against opponents on just 10.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in football. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
Projection
THE BLITZ
80
Receiving Yards
80
Receiving Yards
