NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Hunter HenryReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Patriots vs. Chiefs
Right now, Hunter Henry’s receiving yards prop is set at 26.5 yards (-105/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 26.5 (-115) after it opened @ 27.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Patriots are a 3.5-point underdog in this week’s game, likely creating a passing game script.
- At only 26.68 seconds per play, the Patriots offense rates as the 5th-quickest paced in the NFL (in a neutral context) this year.
- The model projects Hunter Henry to accrue 4.6 targets in this week’s game, on average, ranking him in the 79th percentile when it comes to TEs.
- Hunter Henry has compiled many more air yards this season (40.0 per game) than he did last season (28.0 per game).
- Hunter Henry slots into the 82nd percentile when it comes to tight end WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive volume) with a massive 30.5 mark this year.
Cons
- With a 58.3% rate of throwing the ball (context-neutralized) this year, the 6th-least pass-centric team in football has been the Patriots.
- Opposing teams have averaged 33.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 6th-fewest in the NFL.
- When talking about protecting the passer (and the effect it has on all passing attack statistics), the offensive line of the Patriots profiles as the 9th-worst in the league this year.
- Hunter Henry’s 67.3% Adjusted Completion Rate this year shows a substantial regression in his receiving prowess over last year’s 72.5% rate.
- Hunter Henry’s pass-game efficiency has diminished this year, compiling a mere 6.97 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a 8.54 mark last year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
30
Receiving Yards
30
Receiving Yards
