Week 15 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Hunter Henry from EV Insight

Hunter HenryReceiving Yards

Right now, Hunter Henry’s receiving yards prop is set at 26.5 yards (-105/-115).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 26.5 (-115) after it opened @ 27.5 (-114).

Pros

The Patriots are a 3.5-point underdog in this week’s game, likely creating a passing game script.
At only 26.68 seconds per play, the Patriots offense rates as the 5th-quickest paced in the NFL (in a neutral context) this year.
The model projects Hunter Henry to accrue 4.6 targets in this week’s game, on average, ranking him in the 79th percentile when it comes to TEs.
Hunter Henry has compiled many more air yards this season (40.0 per game) than he did last season (28.0 per game).
Hunter Henry slots into the 82nd percentile when it comes to tight end WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive volume) with a massive 30.5 mark this year.

Cons

With a 58.3% rate of throwing the ball (context-neutralized) this year, the 6th-least pass-centric team in football has been the Patriots.
Opposing teams have averaged 33.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 6th-fewest in the NFL.
When talking about protecting the passer (and the effect it has on all passing attack statistics), the offensive line of the Patriots profiles as the 9th-worst in the league this year.
Hunter Henry’s 67.3% Adjusted Completion Rate this year shows a substantial regression in his receiving prowess over last year’s 72.5% rate.
Hunter Henry’s pass-game efficiency has diminished this year, compiling a mere 6.97 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a 8.54 mark last year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
30
Receiving Yards