Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Evan EngramReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Jaguars vs. Cowboys
Right now, Evan Engram’s receiving yards prop is set at 35.5 yards (-105/-125).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 35.5 (-125) after it opened @ 44.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Jacksonville Jaguars boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.8% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- The Jaguars are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
- The Jaguars rank as the 9th-most pass-oriented offense in the league (context-neutralized) this year with a 62.1% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 139.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Evan Engram has accumulated significantly more receiving yards per game (41.0) this season than he did last season (27.0).
Cons
- The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
- The Dallas Cowboys defense has given up the 9th-least receiving yards per game in football (just 41.0) versus TEs this year.
- The Dallas Cowboys pass defense has displayed good efficiency versus tight ends this year, yielding 5.51 yards-per-target to the position: the 3rd-least in football.
- The Dallas Cowboys pass defense has performed very well when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, allowing an average of 4.23 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 9th-least in the NFL.
- The Dallas Cowboys linebackers grade out as the 5th-best collection of LBs in football this year in covering receivers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
34
Receiving Yards
34
Receiving Yards
