Week 15 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Durham Smythe from EV Insight

Durham SmytheReceiving Yards

Right now, Durham Smythe’s receiving yards prop is set at 14.5 yards (-110/-110).

Pros

Durham Smythe’s 71.9% Route% this season reflects a meaningful growth in his passing attack usage over last season’s 27.1% mark.
After averaging 5.0 air yards per game last year, Durham Smythe has seen marked improvement this year, currently boasting 14.0 per game.
Durham Smythe has put up many more adjusted receiving yards per game (22.0) this year than he did last year (11.0).
Durham Smythe checks in as one of the best possession receivers in the NFL among TEs, hauling in an impressive 77.9% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 81st percentile.

Cons

This week’s line implies an extreme running game script for the Dolphins, who are a huge favorite by 7 points.
Our trusted projections expect the Dolphins as the 11th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 56.3% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects this game to see the 4th-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The 6th-lowest number of plays in football have been called by the Dolphins this year (a mere 55.6 per game on average).
Opposing teams have averaged 32.8 pass attempts per game vs. the New York Jets defense this year: 5th-fewest in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
18
Receiving Yards