Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Durham SmytheReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Dolphins vs. Jets
Right now, Durham Smythe’s receiving yards prop is set at 14.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- Durham Smythe’s 71.9% Route% this season reflects a meaningful growth in his passing attack usage over last season’s 27.1% mark.
- After averaging 5.0 air yards per game last year, Durham Smythe has seen marked improvement this year, currently boasting 14.0 per game.
- Durham Smythe has put up many more adjusted receiving yards per game (22.0) this year than he did last year (11.0).
- Durham Smythe checks in as one of the best possession receivers in the NFL among TEs, hauling in an impressive 77.9% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 81st percentile.
Cons
- This week’s line implies an extreme running game script for the Dolphins, who are a huge favorite by 7 points.
- Our trusted projections expect the Dolphins as the 11th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 56.3% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
- The predictive model expects this game to see the 4th-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The 6th-lowest number of plays in football have been called by the Dolphins this year (a mere 55.6 per game on average).
- Opposing teams have averaged 32.8 pass attempts per game vs. the New York Jets defense this year: 5th-fewest in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
18
Receiving Yards
18
Receiving Yards
